Integrating COVID-19 Models at Different Scales for Infection Risk Estimation and Control Optimization

Collin Schwantes, Benno Lee PhD, Marjorie Willner PhD, Ben Ortiz, Viveca Pabon-Harr PhD

Intro

model diagram

SARS-COV-2 Transmission

  • Inhalation of infectious particles
  • Introduction of fomites to mucus membranes
  • Presence of infectious particles and fomites

Hazard Controls

hierarchy of controls

Image produced by University of California Davis

Problem Statement

Assessing risk of SARS-COV-2 infection in indoor spaces is complicated because interactions at multiple spatial and temporal scales influence fine scale disease transmission.

Simulation Framework

An extensible simulation engine accepts modules that modify transmission dynamics.

[add diagram of code]

Model layers

model diagram

Estimating external infections

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Micro MCMC model using mobility data from cellular phones and

Estimating spatial infections

Estimating direct contact infections

Hazard Control modules

Data Collection

Results

Conclusions

Graphical User Interface